Sunday, May 18, 2008

he offline cost of an online life

Screengrab of Blackle homepage, Blackle
Blackle has got some people thinking about hi-tech energy use

The technology we use is accounting for more and more of the energy we consume, says Bill Thompson. And we need to know just how much.

The next time you want to search for something on the web, try going to www.blackle.com instead of your usual search engine.

The page you get looks remarkably like Google, and queries are fed through to Google, but there's one obvious difference.

Instead of the generous amount of white space which has characterised Google's home page since its 1998 launch, the page is mostly black.

Heap Media, the Australian company behind Blackle, claims black pixels take less power than white and so using its search saves energy. It believes that small things matter when it comes to reducing our energy use, limiting our CO2 output and reducing the likely extent of global warming as a result of human activity.

Whether or not turning off a few million white pixels makes a measurable difference is debatable, and Google has challenged the assumptions behind Blackle, especially when it comes to LCD screens.

It seems to matter for old-style CRT monitors but not for flat screens, according to a paper written in 2002 by Judy Roberson and others which noted: "among the few LCD monitors in the table, the power used to display a white screen is indistinguishable from power used to display the desktop.

"Thus, it appears that display color is a significant determinant of on power for CRTs, but not for LCDs."


Bill Thompson
Perhaps we should develop a Network Energy Protocol that lets servers and services report their electricity consumption in real time, so I can change my usage patterns.
Bill Thompson
The main factor controlling energy consumption for LCDs is the backlighting. Something well known by anyone who has turned down screen brightness and seen the battery life on their laptop take a leap.

So Blackle, for all its good intentions, may have saved a few kilos of carbon for heavy Google users with old monitors, but it can't be used to salve the consciences of the laptop warriors.

Which is perhaps a shame as there seems to be a lot to feel guilty about.

In December 2006 commentator Nick Carr published a widely-read and deeply-contested claim that each active 'avatar' in Second Life used as much electricity as the average person living in Brazil, noting that 'avatars aren't quite as intangible as they seem. They don't have bodies, but they do leave footprints'.

The calculations Carr relied on were rough and ready, as he admitted, and although the headline figure lives on in the blogosphere the real power use seems to be a lot lower, but his claim did get many people to think about their energy use for the first time.

Now Steve Souders, the author of the excellent 'High Performance Web Sites', has taken the debate a stage further by looking at the power consumption implications of poorly-designed web pages.

He picks on Wikipedia, where the home page has thirteen images that must be fetched over the network every time the page is viewed.

Screenshot from Second Life, AP
Spending time online can mean sucking up a lot of power
He argues that this inefficiency costs 5000 kwh (kilowatt hours) per year, or around 2000kg of CO2, arguing that making pages faster is 'good for your users, good for you, and good for Mother Earth'.

I'll see if I can make my home page more efficient, if that will save the planet, but of course there is always the sense that whatever I do on my personal site doesn't matter because my life's entire carbon savings will be wiped out the next time a thoughtless rockstar or self-important Silicon Valley executive flies across the Atlantic in their personal jet.

We need a way to show that what we do at a personal level counts, because the actions of millions will make a difference, and it may be that the network is the best way to get that information.

A number of big hi-tech companies have started to take green computing seriously, offering processors and systems that consume less power.

As part of a project it calls 'Big Green', a play on its nickname of 'Big Blue', IBM has been adding energy-monitoring technology to its mainframe computers, letting those with a System Z9 have access to what it calls a 'mainframe gas gauge'.

This is similar to electricity display devices like the Wattson, showing how much power a home or office is using.

Overloaded power socket, Eyewire
Smarter electricity meters could help lower energy use
Once you know how much energy is being used you can reduce electricity consumption by turning things off or, in the case of a multi-million dollar computer centre, changing the way jobs are scheduled so that more efficient use is made of the resources available.

But what we really want are smart meters that do more than simply report electricity use but also allow some feedback. The smart meters that are being installed in the UK in the next few years will allow real-time billing and could even let those with solar or wind power at home sell the electricity they generate back to the power grid when they aren't using it themselves.

Perhaps we need something similar for our websites and online services, a super-smart meter that can calculate how much power is being used serving my web pages, hosting my Facebook profile, running my Second Life avatar and, of course, dispatching my messages to my Twitter friends.

Like many other internet users I keep the clocks on my computers synchronised using the Network Time Protocol, a standard way of sending out a time signal. Perhaps we should develop a Network Energy Protocol that lets servers and services report their electricity consumption in real time, so I can change my usage patterns.

It would have a lot more impact than symbolically turning off a few white pixels.

And low-carbon footprint social network sites might even have a marketing advantage with more environmentally-aware teenagers.

Bill Thompson is an independent journalist and regular commentator on the BBC World Service programme Digital Planet.

Staying safe and taking risks

Staying safe and taking risks
Toll road in Germany
One net would be safe and ordered like a toll road

Should we have two internets asks Bill Thompson

Jonathan Zittrain's recent book, The Future of the Internet - And How to Stop It, has spurred a lot of discussion both online and offline, with blog posts lauding his insights or criticising his over-apocalyptic imagination.

The book itself makes fascinating reading for those who have watched the network grow from its roots in the research community into today's global channel for communications, commerce and cultural expression.

And the distinction that Zittrain makes between computers and devices that are open for hacking, exploration and creative use and those which are locked down and limited is one that we can clearly see.

An iPhone and an Asus Eee PC are very different objects, and I can't imagine anyone scrawling 'this machine kills fascists' on their iPhone in homage to Woody Guthrie, while my son has just done this to his Asus.

Red and green


Bill Thompson
Perhaps we should ...offer two separate logical networks, operating over the same physical connection
Bill Thompson
One of the reasons that Zittrain puts forward for the growing popularity of closed or, as he prefers 'tethered', devices, is that they are less vulnerable to hacking, security flaws, malware and all the other perils that face any internet-enabled system.

But he sees great dangers in allowing the creative potential of our computers to be limited by the need to register programs with companies like Apple, or have Microsoft's approval before your software will run on Windows.

And because he's from the United States, he doesn't believe that the government or a regulatory framework can solve the problem.

Instead he calls on the internet-using community to come together to solve the serious problems that face us, and offers his own suggestions as to where some of that effort might go.

One of his more interesting suggestions is that our PCs and laptops should have two operating modes: red and green. In the green zone the system is locked down, only approved programs can run, only demonstrably safe traffic is sent and received, and safety is as assured as it can be.

The red zone is more like today's network, where you can download and run pretty much any software you like, but you run the risk that the movie file you found on BitTorrent is actually carrying a nasty little virus.

Users could then decide whether they want to work in the safe zone or go out onto the wider network. And, crucially, the red zone would have a 'restore' button that would wipe anything bad and return you to its initial state so you could recover from any infection.

It's a nice idea, and I think a lot of home users would choose a safer, if more limited, online experience.

Space for subversion

Anti-globalisation demonstration
The other net would allow room for activism

But unlike Zittrain I think that regulation can help, and that putting control in the hands of democratically elected governments is far better than putting it in the hands of corporations.

He wants the network's users to solve the problems, but a community on its own is far less effective than one backed by the rule of law, as eBay clearly demonstrates.

It can only operate as it does because contract law and financial regulation provide a way for the community to enforce its decisions against members, and this is true for other online services.

However not all governments are good; not all governments are wise and sensible; and not all governments listen to reason.

It is therefore necessary to ensure that, whatever the architectures of control on tomorrow's network, there is space for subversion, for activism, for stuff that is not approved, not countenanced by the state, not strictly legal.

And even if we accept that trusted systems will define the online experience for most people, most of the time - and that they will accept and even benefit from that - there needs to be more.

Perhaps we should extend Zittrain's idea beyond the computer and onto the network itself, and offer two separate logical networks, operating over the same physical connections.

One would be the safe world of electronic toll roads, the other a collection of dark and dangerous back alleys.

It would not be hard to build such a system.

Many of us already use what is called 'virtualisation' technology to run different operating systems at the same time, like the Mac users who also have Windows on their computer.

We could have a special virtual operating system for the uncontrolled internet, and anyone who wanted to use it would simply have to run it.

Of course things are not yet as bad as Zittrain seems to claim, and though I don't often agree with noted free market advocate and libertarian Adam Thierer, his critical review on the Progress and Freedom Foundation blog is well-argued and often insightful.

Safe place

Mother and child in silhouette
People crave a safe place for their children to play online

As he notes, he can 'see no reason why we can't have the best of both worlds - a world full of plenty of tethered appliances, but also plenty of generativity and openness.'

But the desire to have a safe space online is growing stronger, and the pressure to lock down large swathes of the online world in order to make the network safe for the vulnerable will not go away.

We've seen it just this week with Facebook announcing that it will attempt to block access to its service to people convicted of 'sex offences' in the US, even though many of them will be guilty of nothing more than consensual sexual activity with other adults in public places.

But because the effort of checking whether someone was convicted - and not merely cautioned - for an offence which involved children is too great tens of thousands of people will be blocked from accessing the service.

Perhaps having a place where no such unreasonable and arbitrary distinctions exist is a good reason to start working on an alternative network.

Bill Thompson is an independent journalist and regular commentator on the BBC World Service programme Digital Planet.

Identity fraud hits net telephony

Woman using voice-over IP
More people are making calls over the net

A new type of identity fraud, which sees hackers tapping into voice-over IP telephony accounts, has been highlighted by a VoIP equipment maker.

Usernames and passwords from voice-over IP (VoIP) phone accounts are selling online for more than stolen credit cards, Newport Networks has found.

The information allows someone to use the telephone service for free.

Net telephony fraud is still in its infancy, with eavesdropping on calls being the most common security flaw.

Capturing accounts

But the move into stealing usernames and passwords which are routinely sent across the network when a call is made, is a worrying new trend thinks Dave Gladwin, vice president of products at Newport Networks.

"It is still at an embryonic stage but as voice adoption increases it becomes more of a problem and needs addressing," said Mr Gladwin.

The details are not sent as plain text but are encoded in such a way as to be "easily captured and unobscured", said Mr Gladwin.

Credit card details have been traded fairly openly online for some time and can be bought for around $12 (£6) each. VoIP account details fetch a slightly higher price, at $17 (£9), according to Mr Gladwin.

The problem is less of a issue for businesses which routinely offer voice-over IP services for their employees because users are tied into a secure corporate network.

But for consumers, relying on public or unsecured home wi-fi networks, there is more of an issue.

"90% of carriers don't offer a secure VoIP service," said Mr Gladwin.

He estimated it would cost around £2/£3 per subscriber for service providers to instigate the additional level of security needed.

"Most of the software out there has the capability of running in secure mode if the service providers would accept it," he said.

VoIP provider Skype said its service, unlike some of its rivals, offered end to end encryption.

"It doesn't matter whether I'm on an open wireless connection, there is no way someone could get hold of my username or password," said Jonathan Christensen, general manager of audio and video at Skype.

He accepts there are security issues facing the industry, especially for providers that use "less robust security mechanisms" but he questions how big a draw a free VoIP account would be for net criminals.

This is a view shared by Jupiter analyst Ian Fogg.

"I have not seen security issues with VoIP as a big issue. This is partly because such services aren't that mainstream and therefore have not been targeted by criminals in the way that e-mail and online banking services have," he said.

Spain arrests 'prolific' hackers

laptop computer
Police say the group never met, but co-ordinated their attacks

Spanish police have arrested five hackers they describe as being among the most active on the internet.

The hackers, who include two 16-year-olds, are accused of disrupting government websites in the United States, Asia and Latin America.

Police say they co-ordinated attacks over the internet and hacked into 21,000 web pages over two years.

The inquiry began in March after a Spanish political party's site was disabled after the Spanish election.

The five were arrested in Barcelona, Burgos, Malaga and

Yahoo tells Icahn that its own board knows best

ay 16, 2008 (IDG News Service) Yahoo Inc. has responded to investor Carl Icahn's threat to take control of Yahoo's board and force it back to the negotiating table with Microsoft Corp. The search company said Icahn's proposal shows "a significant misunderstanding" of how it handled Microsoft's offer, and argued that Yahoo's board remains "the best and most qualified group" to handle its affairs.

In a letter to Yahoo made public earlier yesterday, Icahn said he planned to nominate 10 candidates to replace the incumbent directors on Yahoo's board. He argued that Yahoo was wrong to reject Microsoft's offer to buy the company for $33 per share, and said he hopes to install a new board at Yahoo's shareholder meeting in July that will resume the merger talks.

Yahoo released its response to Icahn later Thursday, signed by board Chairman Roy Bostock.

"Unfortunately, your letter reflects a significant misunderstanding of the facts about the Microsoft proposal and the diligence with which our board evaluated and responded to that proposal," the company wrote. "A fair-minded review of the factual record leads to one conclusion: that Yahoo!'s ten-member board, comprised of nine independent directors along with Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang, remains the best and most qualified group to maximize value for all Yahoo stockholders."

The letter describes the negotiations with Microsoft in detail, in a bid to show that Yahoo took the offer seriously. It says it would not be in the best interests of Yahoo's shareholders for Icahn to nominate a slate of directors "for the express purpose of trying to force a sale of Yahoo to a formerly interested buyer who has publicly stated that they have moved on.

"Please may I remind you that there is currently no acquisition offer on the table from that company or any other party," the letter states. "That said, we have been crystal clear in our stance that we have been and remain willing to consider any proposal from any party including Microsoft if it offers our stockholders full and certain value."

Microsoft announced its $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo on Feb. 1, but it walked away from the deal on May 3 after the two companies failed to agree on a price. Microsoft eventually raised its offer to $33 per share, or by about $5 billion, but Yahoo's board wanted $37 per share.

Icahn, a billionaire investor who last year pressured Motorola to spin off its mobile-phone division, has bought up 59 million Yahoo shares since Microsoft walked away from the deal and hopes to buy a further $2.5 billion of Yahoo stock. He argued that Microsoft's offer of $33 per share is "obviously" superior to Yahoo's prospects as a stand-alone company, and said "a number of shareholders" have asked him to launch the battle for Yahoo's board.

"I am perplexed by the board's actions," he wrote. "It is irresponsible to hide behind management's more than overly optimistic financial forecasts."

Yahoo stuck to its guns and insisted again that Microsoft's offer undervalues the company. It said its board has met more than 20 times to discuss Microsoft's offer and other alternatives. It said it solicited input from shareholders, and that "the senior-most management" from both companies met seven times in person to discuss the deal.

On May 2, Yahoo's board instructed Yang to tell Microsoft that Yahoo was prepared to be sold for $37 per share, provided that Microsoft could show it was reasonably certain it could close the deal without running into regulatory issues.

"This was communicated to Microsoft in-person at a meeting in Seattle on May 3rd. With Microsoft's offer at $33 and Yahoo's counter-proposal at $37, Microsoft elected, within hours, to walk away from the negotiating table and informed us that they were 'moving on,' having never engaged further on price or any of the key non-price deal terms."

The letter concludes that Yahoo is open to a deal "with Microsoft or any other party" for the right price, and that its own board can best steer the company moving forward.

"We look forward to a productive dialogue," it concludes, anticipating a response from Icahn.

New rail ticket system launched

Passengers board train
Atoc says passengers wanted a simpler system of tickets

Rail passengers pre-booking trips will now be issued with an "advance ticket" as the first phase of a new ticketing system comes into operation.

The ticket replaces discounted offers such as Leisure Advance, Business Advance, Value Advance and Apex.

Train operators say this will make the system simpler for passengers and plan to bring in more changes in September.

But the change will see an increase in charges for some who want to rearrange a ticket they have booked in advance.

The number of UK rail journeys has risen more than 40% in the past decade.

Fee changes

The changes will mean an end to refunds on advance sales and, for some, a doubling of the fee for changes to journey times to £10 per journey leg.

There will also be changes for railcard holders.

The percentage discount afforded by Young Persons, Family and Friends, Senior, HM Forces and Disabled Persons railcards, will now apply to all tickets bought in advance, which was previously not the case.

A further change is that the 50% child discount also now applies to all advance tickets.

Transport campaigner's view on new rail ticket system

On 7 September a second phase of changes will take place, with tickets that can be bought right up to the date and time of travel being split into two categories - Anytime and Off-peak.

Anytime tickets can be bought up until the time of travel and used on any train without peak-hour or other restrictions.

Off-peak tickets can also be bought up until the time of travel, but will carry restrictions on the time and day of travel - current ticket types which will be re-named Off-peak include Saver and Cheap Day returns.

'Not about fares'

A spokesman for the Association of Train Operating Companies (Atoc) said the move was "nothing to do with the cost of fares" but was meant to simplify the system for passengers.

"Passengers have told us that they want a simpler fares system. We are listening and responding," said David Mapp, commercial director of Atoc, when the plans were announced.

New ticket names
Advance - discounted, advance-bought tickets
Off-peak - tickets bought up to time of travel, but with restrictions
Anytime - tickets bought up to time of travel with no restrictions

"These changes will enable people to buy train tickets more easily and with greater confidence."

But Campaign for Better Transport director Stephen Joseph said the new system could be even clearer.

"It will simplify things for passengers but not as much as I think they should be," he said.

"You'll still have a situation where you'll have confusion about when off peak is, when you can get, walk up and buy a cheap ticket.

"In some cases you've still got confusing restrictions which mean that it's actually quite difficult to get cheap tickets on the railway - particularly at times when people want to travel like on InterCity lines from say Manchester to London."

Afghans free foreign contractors

Tariq Azizuddin (17 May 2008)
Observers believe Mr Azizuddin was released as part of a prisoner swap

Afghan security forces have rescued two foreign contractors who were kidnapped near the western city of Herat almost a month ago, officials have said.

The intelligence chief in Herat, Habib Habib, said his agents had raided a cave where the men were being held and arrested the leader of the kidnap gang.

The Indian and Nepalese men, who worked for a US security company, are well.

Pakistan's ambassador has meanwhile returned home after being freed by the militants who abducted him in February.

Tariq Azizuddin said he had been released in the Pakistani tribal area of north Waziristan on Friday, but was vague about the identity of his kidnappers.

In April he appeared in a video on al-Arabiya TV, in which he said that had been taken by "mujahideen from the Taleban". But speaking to reporters in Islamabad on Saturday, he identified them only as "Pakistani mujahideen".

I was released yesterday evening to the government after the efforts of the government of Pakistan on the orders of the prime minister
Tariq Azizuddin

Mr Azizuddin disappeared on 11 February along with his driver and bodyguard while travelling by car from Pakistan to the Afghan capital, Kabul.

He said his release had been the result of a "chain of actions set about on the order" of the Pakistani prime minister and his government, but declined to elaborate.

But the adviser of Pakistan's interior ministry, Rehman Malik, said there had been no deal or "exchange of terrorists", merely a "law enforcement action".

The BBC's Barbara Plett in Islamabad says informed observers suspect Mr Azizuddin was released as part of a prisoner swap between the authorities and local pro-Taleban militants, who are engaged in peace talks.

China declares national mourning

Chinese troops rescue an injured survivor from Wenchuan county, Sichuan province on 18 May 2008
More than 10,000 people are believe to be trapped in rubble

China has announced three days of mourning for the tens of thousands of victims of Monday's earthquake.

It will begin with a three-minute silence at 1428 (0628 GMT), exactly a week after the quake struck the south-western Sichuan province.

The Olympic torch relay will also be suspended for three days.

The number of confirmed deaths has now risen to 32,477, but officials say the final toll may reach 50,000. More than 220,000 people have been injured.

Chinese President Hu Jintao has expressed gratitude for the international help with relief efforts following the magnitude 7.9 quake.

QUAKE STATISTICS
map
Up to Sunday 18 May:
32,477 dead
220,109 injured
145 aftershocks above level 4, 23 above level 5, biggest 6.1
34,000 medical staff in quake zone
181,460 tents, 220,000 quilts despatched
6bn Chinese yuan ($860m, £440m) received in donations, from China and abroad
Drinking water for 7m people restored
Source: Chinese government

"I express heartfelt thanks to the foreign governments and international friends," Mr Hu was quoted as saying by the state-run Xinhua news agency.

Offers of help in the relief effort from home and abroad have now surpassed $860m (£440m), Chinese officials say.

The first aid supplied by the US has arrived, with an air force plane loaded with tents, lanterns and 15,000 meals landing in Sichuan's provincial capital, Chengdu.

However, a British rescue team standing by in Hong Kong is returning home after being refused permission to travel to the earthquake zone.

Rescue efforts have resumed in Beichuan, after the city was evacuated amid fears that it could be engulfed by a river bursting its banks.

The city, which lies near the epicentre of the quake, was reduced to ruins.

Aftershocks

Three giant pandas are missing from the Wolong Nature Reserve, Xinhua reports. All the pandas at the reserve were initially reported safe.

There are still stories of survivors being pulled from the rubble.

One man who was rescued on Sunday, Tang Xiong, had only had slight bruises and was conscious when he was rescued in Beichuan county 139 hours after the quake, Xinhua said.

Plot' delays Tsvangirai return


Morgan Tsvangirai in Pretoria (10 May 2008)
Mr Tsvangirai had planned to address a major MDC rally in Bulawayo

Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has postponed a return to Zimbabwe because of concerns about a plot to kill him.

"We have received information from a credible source concerning a planned assassination attempt," his spokesman George Sibotshiwe said.

Mr Tsvangirai was set to return to campaign for a run-off presidential election against Robert Mugabe.

On Friday, the US ambassador warned post-election violence had made a fair second round run-off vote impossible.

James McGee told the BBC he had evidence that the police and military had been involved in "pure unadulterated violence designed to intimidate people from voting" in the election, which the electoral commission has set for 27 June.

Opposition and human rights groups have said hundreds of opposition supporters have been beaten up and at least 30 killed since the first round on 29 March.

According to official results, Mr Tsvangirai won the presidential poll, but not by enough to avoid a run-off with President Robert Mugabe. He has insisted he did pass the 50% threshold and so should have been declared the outright winner.

'No choice'

After spending more than a month outside Zimbabwe since then trying to drum up international support, Mr Tsvangirai had been planning to return to Harare on Saturday and resume his campaign to oust Mr Mugabe.

We can't say why he will not be coming today, except to say it's due to circumstances beyond our control
Nelson Chamisa
MDC spokesman

He had been due to speak to newly-elected members of parliament from his party, who will form a majority for the first time since independence.

The MDC leader had also planned to address a major rally in Zimbabwe's second city, Bulawayo, on Sunday.

The rally is still scheduled to go ahead, but Mr Tsvangirai's spokesman said the politician's return had been postponed indefinitely.

Last year, Mr Tsvangirai was treated in hospital after being assaulted by police.

The BBC's Caroline Hawley in Johannesburg says that despite a campaign of state-sponsored violence and intimidation against MDC supporters, Mr Tsvangirai has no choice but to contest the run-off or allow Mr Mugabe to win by default.

'Unadulterated violence'

Ambassador McGee warned that such "politically-inspired" violence cast doubt on whether a free and fair election could take place.

"Too many people have been killed, too many people have been maimed, too many people have been dislocated from their homes," Mr McGee told the BBC.

He said the attacks involved "mainly beatings to the back and buttocks, we've seen quite a few broken limbs, we've seen cuts to the head".

Mr McGee said he had met victims on a trip with British, Japanese, EU, Dutch and Tanzanian diplomats, during which he said they were harassed by police.

Along with so-called war veterans, he said they had evidence "police and military are involved in these attacks".

It was "pure unadulterated violence designed to intimidate people from voting in the next election", he said.

Deputy Information Minister, Bright Matonga, insisted that the Zimbabwean government did not support any violence, whether by MDC or Mr Mugabe's Zanu-PF.

Afghan student in torture claim

Sayed Parwez Kambakhsh looks on during his appearance in court in Kabul, Afghanistan, 18 May 2008
Kambakhsh told the appeals court the charges against him were 'lies'

An Afghan student journalist who was sentenced to death for blasphemy has told an appeals court that he confessed after being tortured.

Sayed Parwez Kambakhsh was convicted in January of insulting Islam.

But at the appeals court in Kabul the 24-year-old insisted he was innocent of all the charges.

He said he was tortured into confessing that he had disrupted university classes by asking questions about women's rights under Islam.

He was also convicted of distributing an article on the same subject, and adding three additional paragraphs.

He told the crowded, hour-long appeal hearing: "As a Muslim ... I never allow myself to do such a thing. These are totally lies."

Kambakhsh's death sentence was handed down during a closed-door trial, which drew condemnation from parts of the international community.

He was studying journalism at Balkh University in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-i-Sharif, and writing for local newspapers, when he was arrested in October.

Our correspondent in Kabul, Martin Patience, says critics accuse the fledgling Afghan justice system of being too religiously conservative.

The journalist's appeal hearing was adjourned for a week, in order to give him time to prepare his written defence.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Chinese plane business gets wings

Planes prepare to take off from the new Terminal 3 at Beijing International Airport
The number of Chinese people flying is growing quickly

China has launched a new commercial plane maker which it hopes will one day compete with the likes of Boeing and Airbus, state media have reported.

China Commercial Aircraft will aim to develop regional aircraft able to carry more than 150 passengers, Xinhua said.

With $2.7bn (£1.4bn) in initial funding, the Shanghai firm is backed by state and regional governments.

China is currently building a 90-seat regional jet but previous efforts at breaking into the market have failed.

Long wait

Beijing is keen to develop large-scale aviation capacity of its own to reduce its reliance on Airbus and Boeing as consumer demand for flying continues to surge in China.

Studies have suggested that demand for new planes from Chinese airlines will increase fivefold over the next 20 years, requiring about 2,650 additional aircraft.

They might be able to establish a presence in the business over the next 10 to 20 years if they nurture it with government cash
Richard Aboulafia, Teal Group

Xinhua quoted Jin Zhuanglong, Commercial Aircraft's general manager, as saying that it would take the firm many years to do the necessary research to begin production.

"According to the history of Airbus and Boeing, the development and success of civil planes cannot be realised by relying on one or two generations," he said.

Analysts said it could take China up to 20 years to become a credible force in commercial aviation and that it would only succeed if it attracted sufficient private investment.

"They might be able to establish a presence in the business over the next 10 to 20 years if they nurture it with government cash and gradually offer shares to the private sector," said Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst with Teal Group.

The state-controlled Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is currently the firm's largest investor, holding a 30% stake.

Between them, the Shanghai regional government and China Aviation Corporation (AVIC), which has been spearheading existing aviation projects, hold 25%.

Other investors include state-owned mineral firms such as Chalco, Baoshan and Sinochem.

AVIC is developing the 90-seat ARJ21 jet which is due to begin testing later this year, with its first deliveries expected in 2009.

UK economic outlook 'worsening'

People leaving supermarket with shopping
Families are facing pressure on their disposable incomes

The outlook for the UK economy has got worse and the Bank of England must act to stop a major downturn, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has warned.

The current economic slowdown will be more prolonged than previously thought, it argued, with consumer spending remaining weak until the end of 2009.

The Bank of England must be more "pro-active" in countering the threat to growth and business prospects.

The Bank left interest rates on hold at 5% last week.

'Dangers'

The widely-expected decision was criticised by some business groups which have called on the Bank to be more aggressive in cutting borrowing to assist consumer confidence.

The Bank has trimmed rates three times since December but the 0.4% economic growth in the first quarter was the lowest quarterly figure since the start of 2005.

Although the Bank remains concerned about growing inflationary pressures, most economists believe it will reduce borrowing by at least a half point by the end of the year.

The longer the Monetary Policy Committee waits now, the bigger the danger that the situation would deteriorate
David Kern, BCC economic adviser

But the BCC warned against undue caution due to the worsening economic prospects.

"The longer the Monetary Policy Committee waits now, the bigger the danger that the situation would deteriorate and the policy choices would become more difficult and more unpleasant later in the year," said David Kern, the BCC's economic adviser.

"Waiting unduly before easing further would pose unacceptable threats to growth."

In its latest quarterly economic update, the BCC downgraded its forecasts for annual growth next year from 2% to 1.6%.

This, it said, was due to the "sharp deceleration" in consumer spending expected over the next 18 months as a result of rising household bills and falling house prices.

While stressing that a recession remained "unlikely", the BCC said the next 18 months would be "difficult and risky" and called on the government to offer extra support for small firms.

Analysis: Could Clinton land the VP nomination?

Friends and close associates of both Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are now convinced that, assuming she loses the race for the presidential nomination, she is probably going to fight to be the vice presidential nominee on an Obama-for-president ticket.
art.clinton.afp.gi.jpg

Carl Bernstein writes that Hillary Clinton's campaign recognizes that it faces an uphill battle.

Clinton "is trying to figure out how to land the plane without looking like surrender," a prominent figure in the Obama camp said Friday. This means, in all likelihood, bringing her campaign to a close in the next few weeks and trying to leverage her way onto an Obama ticket from a position of maximum strength, said several knowledgeable sources.

A person close to her, with whom her campaign staff has counseled at various points, said this week, "I think the following will happen: Obama will be in a position where the party declares him the nominee by the first week in June. She'll still be fighting with everybody -- the Rules Committee, the party leaders -- and arguing, 'I'm winning these key states; I've got almost half the delegates. I have a whole constituency he hasn't reached. I've got real differences on approach to how we win this election, and I'm going to press the hell out of this guy. ... Relief for the middle class, universal health care, etc.; I'm Ms. Blue Collar, and I'm going to press my fight, because he can't win without my being on the ticket.' "

Another major Democratic Party figure, who supports her for president, agreed: "It's not going to be a quiet exit. ... Obama has got a terrible situation. He marches to a different drummer. He won't want to take her on the ticket. But he might have to, even though the idea of Vice President Hillary with Bill in the background at the White House is not something -- especially after what [the Clintons] have thrown at him that he relishes. I believe she'll go for it."

However, several important Democrats aligned with Obama predicted that he -- and Michelle Obama -- will vigorously resist any Clinton effort to get on the ticket. Rather, Obama is more likely to try to convince Clinton to either stay in the Senate or accept another position in an Obama administration, should he win the presidency.

Several Clinton associates say there is still a ray of hope among some in her campaign: that a "catastrophic" revelation about Obama might make it possible for her to win the presidential nomination. But barring that, Hillary and Bill Clinton recognize that her candidacy is being abandoned and rejected by superdelegates whom she once expected to win over and that, even if she were to win the popular vote in combined primary states, she will almost certainly be denied the nomination.

In theory, the landing of Campaign Clinton by the end of the primaries -- in early June at the latest, without the prospect of a convention struggle -- would be good news from Obama's point of view and even from the perspective of close Clinton friends and associates who revere their candidate and worry about the legacy of Hillary and Bill Clinton.

However, from the perspective of both campaign camps, there is serious concern about the kind of landing she's aiming for and the precarious task of bringing her plane down, especially if she decides to seek the vice presidential nomination. There could be a number of different landings:

• Smooth and skillful, doing the Obama candidacy no further damage and perhaps restoring to relative health the legacy of and regard for Bill and Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Party.

• Explosive, setting down after the enemy has been carpet-bombed (an "October surprise in May"), something the Obama campaign believes may be less and less likely to come from his Democratic opponent because of the dangers to the party and the Clintons' reputation. Yet the Clinton campaign's search for damaging information and its hope that such information exists continues, according to knowledgeable sources. Strategist Harold Ickes, her premier tactical counselor, warned on the eve of the North Carolina and Indiana that Obama could be vulnerable to an "October surprise" by the McCain campaign.

• Missing the runway and destroying the Democratic village, as even her advocates outside her immediate campaign apparat fear could happen if the Clinton campaign continues to pursue a harshly negative course.

• Just bumpy and scary enough to shake the Obama campaign one last time and get her into the hangar as the vice presidential nominee on the Democratic ticket. Increasingly, this is what people in Obama's corner and those who know her well are becoming convinced she will try to do. Part of this assumption is based on her determination to roll up the biggest numbers possible in West Virginia and Kentucky, and Bill Clinton's argument that she may still win a majority of popular votes in non-caucus states.

Meanwhile, some of the Clintons' longtime friends and political counselors are intent on trying to talk her down calmly -- something almost like a family intervention -- to get her to concede the Democratic presidential race when the appropriate time comes, in such a way as to heal some of the wounds to the party and to both candidates but allow her to make her best case for the vice presidency.

Almost no one I have spoken to who knows her well doubts that, as she reconciles to the likelihood that her presidential campaign will fall short, she will probably seek the vice presidential spot. One reason: Contrary to common belief, she doesn't look forward to going back to the Senate, they say. Many Democratic senators believe that she would not have an easy time winning an election for majority leader; the tenor and tactics of her presidential campaign have alienated some of her Democratic colleagues in the Senate.

Far more than as one of 100 senators, she could accomplish much of her lifelong social and political agenda as vice president and, if Obama is not elected, could make a better argument that she should be the party's next nominee for president.

One other factor now plays a bigger role in the vice presidential question than on the night of her defeat in North Carolina and her narrow win in the Indiana primary: her unequivocal assertion the following day that she has more support among white working-class voters than Obama has.

In an interview with USA Today, she cited an Associated Press report that, she said, "found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

It is difficult to overstate the negative effect this remark has had on superdelegates, party leaders and her Democratic colleagues in both houses of Congress. "That's not a way to land the plane," one of her key supporters said. "If you were a superdelegate, you'd say, 'We have to shut this down right away.' "

But others worried that her words were calculated, that by venturing into such risky, rhetorical territory about race, she might put Obama under increased pressure to take her on the ticket before more damage and loss of support from her working-class base is felt.

Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, an old Clinton friend, said Friday that she had made a major mistake in suggesting "that hardworking Americans are white people."

"This statement has got to be dealt with by Hillary Clinton, and Hillary Clinton alone," he said on MSNBC's "Hardball."

"The sooner she does that," he said, "the sooner her ship is going to start sailing in a better direction."

Google and Yahoo to share web ads


Yahoo and Google, the world's two biggest search engines, have announced a two-week experiment that will see them share advertising space.

During the pilot, Google will be able to place ads alongside 3% of search results on Yahoo's website.

Analysts say the move is designed to frustrate Microsoft, which has offered to buy Yahoo for $44.6bn (£22.6bn), or extract a higher offer.

The news came as both sides were reported to be forging other alliances.

Joint offer

Microsoft and News Corp are discussing making a joint bid for Yahoo, according to the New York Times.

Yahoo's moves are proof positive that it is standing with the back againts the firewall
Tim Weber
Business editor, BBC News website

The idea would be to combine three of the world's most visited websites: MySpace, Yahoo and MSN.com.

News Corp had previously discussed working with Yahoo to see off Microsoft's offer.

At the same time, Yahoo is looking to Time Warner's AOL to keep out of Microsoft's hands, according to the Wall Street Journal.

It reported that the deal would involve Time Warner making a cash investment for 20% of the merged firm, which Yahoo could then use to buy back shares.

'Less competitive'

Microsoft criticised Yahoo's advertising trial with Google, saying any lasting deal would not be in the consumers' interests.

"Any definitive agreement between Yahoo and Google would consolidate over 90% of the search advertising market in Google's hands. This would make the market far less competitive," Brad Smith, Microsoft's General Counsel said.

But Yahoo said the testing did not necessarily mean that "any further commercial relationship with Google will result".

Investors reacted positively to the announcement, with Yahoo shares rising 7%.

"Yahoo has made a really clever move here," Cowen and Co analyst Jim Friedland said.

"It looked like Microsoft had all the cards, Yahoo is at least now able to use this for leverage to get Microsoft to pay more," he said.

Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer on Saturday gave Yahoo three weeks to agree to the company's offer or risk having the offer lowered.

Obama: World wants to see U.S. lead


Sen. Barack Obama said Thursday that the most important thing he could achieve as president would be to deal with Iraq and the threat of al Qaeda in Afghanistan while improving "our influence around the world."

In his first interview since the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, Obama said he thinks the United States' influence around the world has been diminishing.

"The world wants to see the United States lead. They've been disappointed and disillusioned over the last seven, eight years," he told CNN's Wolf Blitzer in an interview on "The Situation Room."

"I think there is still a sense everywhere I go that if the United States regains its sense of who it is and our values and our ideals, that we will continue to set the tone for a more peaceful and prosperous world." Video Watch the full interview with Obama »

Obama said he thinks the way the war in Iraq has been handled has kept the United States from focusing on key issues like energy policy, global warming and the economy.

Americans want to succeed, he said, "but we're going to have to make some investments and ensure that the dynamism and the innovation of the American people is released."

"It's very hard for us to do that when we're spending close to $200 billion a year in other countries, rebuilding those countries instead of focusing on making ourselves strong," he said.

Obama downplayed headlines and stories, such as the cover of Time magazine, that have declared him the Democratic presidential nominee.

"I don't want to be jinxed. We've still got some work to do," he said. Video Watch an analysis of some of Obama's comments »

Obama predicted that he and Sen. Hillary Clinton would probably split the remaining contests and said Clinton would win the upcoming primary in West Virginia by a "big margin."

Obama won North Carolina by a 14-point margin Tuesday. Clinton squeaked out a win in Indiana by 2 points.

In the days after those contests, some top Democrats have called on Clinton to step aside.

Obama deflected a question about a potential joint ticket with the New York senator, saying it's too early to start thinking about running mates.

"Sen. Clinton has shown herself to be an extraordinary candidate. She's tireless, she's smart, she's capable, and so obviously she'd be on anybody's short list to be a potential vice presidential candidate," he said. "But it would be presumptuous of me at this point ... to somehow suggest that she should be my running mate." Video Watch viewer responses to question: Should Obama offer Clinton the No. 2 spot? »

Terry McAuliffe, a former Democratic National Committee chairman and a co-chairman of Clinton's campaign, commented Thursday on the possibility of a joint ticket.

"I think what she's interested in being the nominee of the party. ... We're fighting hard for it. This woman has been working tirelessly through this campaign. ... Hillary has earned the right to do whatever she wants to do."

Obama said he's ready for what would be the next phase if he becomes the nominee: a matchup against Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP candidate.

Obama said he was offended when McCain said last month, "It's very clear who Hamas wants to be the next president."

"I think it's disappointing because John McCain always says, 'Well, I'm not going to run that kind of politics,' and then to engage in that kind of smear I think is unfortunate, particularly since my policy on Hamas has been no different than his," Obama said.

"And so for him to toss out comments like that, I think, is an example of him losing his bearings as he pursues this nomination."

When asked to respond to McCain supporters -- such as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- who have said Obama is not ready to be commander in chief, the senator from Illinois said he thinks what people are looking for is "good judgment."

"I think I've consistently displayed the kind of judgment that the American people are looking for in the next president," he said. Video Watch Obama say why he's qualified to be president »

advertisement

Romney responded later on "The Situation Room," saying "The truth of the matter is just as I said, that he doesn't have a record of accomplishments in the private sector or in the governmental sector ... hasn't pushed a major piece of legislation.

"He seems like a charming guy who's very well-spoken. But in terms of actually having led, actually having accomplished something, actually having a kind of leadership that America needs at a critical time with our economy ... he's untested. ... Frankly, Sen. McCain is someone who is tested and very proven," he added.

Alarm at Google Yahoo partnering


Regulators in the US are being urged to investigate any potential online advertising and search partnership between Google and Yahoo.

The call by a coalition of 16 American civil rights and rural advocacy bodies comes despite the fact no firm deal has actually been announced.

"We all suffer in such mega mergers," Gary Flowers of the Black Leadership Forum told BBC News.

The justice department is examining a trial the companies did in April.

It has been widely reported that it is looking into the anti-trust implications of last month's two-week test.

However, the department says it has no comment on the coalition's demands because there is no definitive agreement between Yahoo and Google at the moment.

But reports say that the two companies are presently hammering out the intricacies of a future potential advertising and search agreement, and are sharing their plans with antitrust regulators.

At Google's shareholder meeting on Thursday, Chairman Eric Schmidt said: "If there were a deal [with Yahoo], we would anticipate structuring the deal to address the anti-trust concerns that have been widely discussed."

'Never positive'

This assurance is not good enough for the coalition which is made up of the League of Rural Voters, the National Black Chamber of Commerce and the American Agriculture Movement.

It also includes the Black Leadership Forum, an umbrella group of 36 civil rights organisations including the NAACP and the National Urban League.

In a letter to Assistant Attorney General Thoma Barnett, head of the Justice Department's anti-trust division, the coalition argues that such a deal would give Google almost 90% of the search advertising market and strengthen its influence over internet users' access to information.

"We face a possible future in which no content could be seamlessly accessed without Google's permission," the letter states.

The effect Mr Flowers says of such large partnerships is never positive and would for the black community, as for other communities, "condense competition, increase prices and limit new business opportunity on the internet".

'Do no evil'

League of Rural Voters' executive director Niel Ritchie claims that the do-no-evil mantra may no longer apply in today's marketplace in which Google's reach is apparently without bound, touching more and more aspects of our everyday lives.

"We believe the government should give this agreement very careful scrutiny," he says.

Mr Flowers says:

"Google has already exhibited a pattern of violating privacy, engaging in anti-competitive conduct and using its monopoly power in the search market to drive internet users to its affiliated services and its viewpoints on policy matters.

"Any joint combination with Yahoo could dramatically worsen these problems."

The Centre for Digital Democracy, a consumer advocacy group, is also willing to push regulators to block any deal and wants European consumer groups to raise concerns with European Union officials.

"You can't allow Google to operate a portion of its leading competitor out of its back pocket," Jeffrey Chester executive director of the CDD told the Associated Press.

There has been no comment from Yahoo or Google.

Darfur's peacekeeper: Africa's toughest job?

If General Martin Luther Agwai's name is not yet familiar, it will be soon.

He has been given one of the toughest jobs in Africa, and perhaps the most thankless: Commander of the new combined United Nations-African Union peacekeeping force for Darfur.

General Agwai will lead the biggest peacekeeping operation in the world with 20,000 troops and 6,000 police under his command.

The general told BBC News that building a peacekeeping force of that size from scratch would take time, and he warned against high expectations, saying without peace his troops would be in a "in a very uncomfortable position".

The former head of Nigeria's armed forces is courteous and softly-spoken.

He told me his military heroes are General George Patton and General Ariel Sharon.

Asked if his new job is a poisoned chalice, his response is characteristically low-key.

"When I was accepting this job I did it with all sincerity," he said, "believing that somebody has to do the job and if somebody has to do it, why not me."

Scorched earth

The general is spending a lot of time in the air - it is the only way to get around his new territory.

We joined him on board a small UN helicopter for a tour of AU bases in south Darfur.

HAVE YOUR SAY
There is often a tendency in the international community to forget working for the core mission
TT, Araia, Pretoria

The general kept a watch on the terrain below - an endless stretch of parched earth, the size of France.

Next month, the first of the peacekeepers are due to arrive in this harsh environment.

Gen Agwai is well aware of the high expectations, in the international community, and in the camps - where some of the dispossessed are counting down the days to the arrival of the blue helmets.

But he has a message for all those who wait - do not expect too much too soon.

"I'm worried because of high expectation," he told me.

"People will expect us by tomorrow to do something, without knowing that on the ground not much has changed. And I can't see anything changing much even up to the end of this year."

African Union soldiers in Darfur (file pic)
African Union troops in Darfur have a limited mandate

"Many people are basing their judgement on the resolution which has given us 20,000 men. But you don't have anything on the ground."

General Agwai is concerned about managing the expectations of people who do not know the landscape of Darfur.

He refers, diplomatically, to "those who haven't had the opportunity of visiting here."

We land at a remote base, hemmed in by desert.

The general's first problem is how to get the troops into places like this - with no roads, no airport and no water supplies.

"We may be forced to deploy where we don't want to, because of the issue of water," he says.

Peacekeepers, not peace-makers

At the base there's a reception committee of tribal elders in flowing white robes, and rebel fighters in camouflage.

When they meet the general, one demand keeps coming up - security. But in the absence of a peace deal, that won't be in the general's gift.

We are not here to conquer anybody... we are not here to impose peace
General Martin Luther Agwai

His soldiers will be able to use force to save lives - unlike the current African Union observers - but according to the general, they are not coming to Darfur to fight for peace.

"We are not here to conquer anybody," he says.

"We are not here to compel any peace. We are here to work with the Sudanese people - both the government and the parties to assist them to find peace. We are not here to impose peace. We are not here to fight anybody."

In the forthcoming months, General Agwai may need to juggle the roles of mediator, diplomat and military commander.

He will be walking an unknown path - leading a 'hybrid' force, though no one seems quite sure just how hybrid it will be.

It will take a year or more before the peacekeeping mission reaches full strength.

And the Sudanese government could create obstacles, as it has done in the past.

In the words of a senior diplomat in the region: "the Sudanese have a way of getting around things".

Taming the rebels

But some in the AU mission here believe the biggest problem will be the rebels, not the government in Khartoum.

KEY REBEL PLAYERS
Map
SLM: Minni Minnawi's faction signed 2006 peace deal
SLM: Abdul Wahid Mohammad Ahmed al-Nur's faction rejected peace deal
Jem: Khalil Ibrahim, one of the first rebel groups, rejected deal
Rebel negotiator: Suleiman Jamous
SLM Unity: Abdallah Yehia
UFLD: recently formed umbrella group including SLM commanders
Other breakaway SLM commanders: Mahjoub Hussein, Jar el-Neby and Suleiman Marajan
There are estimated to be more than 13 rebel factions in Darfur

At last count there were about a dozen rebel groups in Darfur, all trying to call the shots.

Before leaving the base, General Agwai met some of the weary AU observers, whose operation has all but ground to a standstill.

Many feel they have been made scapegoats - left waiting for equipment and support, and sometimes even for their salaries.

The new peacekeeping force could also be handicapped - if the international community does not keep its word.

Enough troops have been promised - from Africa and elsewhere. But Western nations are not rushing in with military hardware.

So far not a single attack helicopter has been offered.

The general says he is an optimist and believes a workable peace agreement can be reached, but he admits to a few sleepless nights already.

Rightly or wrongly, if there are no improvement in Darfur, he'll be someone to blame.